#MNR: DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE
“But it’s far from over.”
Political pundits warned us of an impending red wave (Republican domination at the ballots) entering last Tuesday’s midterm elections. Dems were predicted to incur heavy losses in both parts of congress as well as in gubernatorial races across the country. The economy and crime were believed to be at the forefront of the arguments of disgruntled Americans who were eager for change. The Grand Old Party (GOP) was convinced that it was America’s answer, despite its collective desire to strip established rights away from the people it “serves.” The GOP was convinced that voters were eager to see things its way, even though few Rs outside of Rick Scott offered any type of plan to better the economy. Scott’s plan was absurd, by the way. Polls reflected the sentiment, giving indications that Rs would flip anywhere from 20-60 (yes 60) seats in the House, as many as four seats in the senate and several governorships across the land. Ambitious House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy needed a bib to keep the slobber of his salivating chops from drenching his shirt and tie, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was much less enthusiastic. The bicameral party leaders had differing predictions entering Tuesday night. It seems that the wily old senator’s incredulity was much more sagacious in the end.
FROM WAVES TO SPLASHES
The red wave that many predicted never reached shore. Republicans were met with sobering losses in the house, senate and governor races. The House, almost certain to flip entering last Tuesday, is still up in the air, with the great Steve Kornacki and MSNBC predicting that the flip at most will be a one (1) seat advantage, from 220-212 (3 vacancies) Dem to 219-216 R, with a +/- of 4. 218 is the magic number for the majority. For the politically unaware, that means that McCarthy perpetually would be at the mercy of his coworkers, the House Freedom Caucus, led by Gym Jordan and Scott Perry, with the Notorious MTG as its unofficial mouthpiece and lead troglodyte. That’s tantamount to playing hopscotch in a Vietnamese minefield. McCarthy will most certainly have to make all types of concessions to ensure their votes on everything. Shit, chances are that he may not even be the Majority Leader even if they do flip the House. I can already see tRump’s human condom Elise Stefanik rubbing her hands together in her best Birdman impersonation. Suspense will continue throughout the month, as many of the California House elections will take weeks to sort out. Bear in mind that Cali has 40 million residents. Things are so crazy that Lauren Boebert is still sweating it out in her district in Colorado, and she was given roughly an 8.5 in 10 chance of winning. It’s looking like she will prevail, but her race has been MUCH closer than even the most expert of experts could have predicted. That’s all you need to know to put things in perspective.
The Senate, like the House, did not go as planned for Rs. John Fetterman beat Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly fended off Blake Masters to retain his seat in Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto outlasted tRump supporter Adam Laxait to retain her seat in Nevada and Raphael Warnock is headed to a 12.6 runoff versus Hershey Squirts Walker in a race that essentially isn’t a “big deal” because Dems have already [technically] retained the Senate. Warnock, the incumbent, is the favorite headed into 12.6. In the only two senate races that went in favor of Rs, 45’s buddy Ron Johnson edged Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin to retain his seat, while Cheesy nut-hugger J.D. Vance beat Tim Ryan to win the open senate seat in Ohio.
The blue block party didn’t end with Congress. Dem governors were able to hold the forts down in Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois. Maryland elected its first Black governor EVER in Wes Moore. The only Republican triumph came in Nevada, where Clark County (Vegas) sheriff Joe Lombardo beat incumbent Steve Sisolak. Sisolak had to deal with being the man in charge of the state where America’s biggest tourist economy was shuttered for months during the pandemic. I’m talking about the Las Vegas strip in case anyone reading is brain dead. Sisolak never stood a real chance, as the fingers of blame had to be pointed at someone. For further context, Lombardo is more of a traditional conservative, not a tRump loyalist. Cheesy’s last hope of a governor made in his image is dwindling with every batch of votes reported in Arizona, as incumbent Katie Hobbs remains ahead of tRump super shmeat eater Kari Lake. In other words, the fat lady has already had her mic check.
NUMBERS LIE EVERYDAY, B.
Headed into last Tuesday, I spent a considerable amount of time crunching polling data from Real Clear Politics, an entity that groups diverse polls and yields an aggregate number of who the favorite is. Even though most numbers fell well within polling spreads, data STRONGLY hinted at said red wave. The data birthed so many questions. Why is damn near everything trending red? [More importantly] exactly WHO are they polling, and how is this polling done? Because if it’s cold calling I have a couple more questions. Are they calling landline numbers? Who TF answers unknown callers? Are the people they’re reaching representative of the voters in these state races? I remained highly skeptical of the data because it didn’t sit right in my virtual room of commonsense. I begin with myself as an example. I’ve voted in every presidential election since 1996, but I have NEVER been called about my voting preferences. Yet, I receive texts from candidates every damn time elections are near. How are some polling numbers so significantly different from others? One poll I read swung from plus five for one candidate to plus ten for the other candidate IN ONE WEEK. I have never been a part of any polling data, yet common fucking sense tells me that type of swing is impossible in a week’s time. Polling has shown us that it is flawed on several levels, beginning with polling demographics and sample size. I’m damn near certain polling never reaches college students, as polling AGAIN vastly underestimated the college demographic. I’m damn near certain that polling rarely ever reaches minority centrists like myself. I’m fairly certain that most people reject the calls of those seeking polling data because no one I know answers unknown callers. My assumptions could be wrong, but election results say they aren’t.
A VOTE IN FAVOR OF FREEDOM AND AUTONOMY
Republicans were correct in the assumption that economics was the lead issue headed into midterms. They were wrong in their assumption that abortion and reproductive rights were a minor issue. Much to the miscalculation of Rs, Roe was a major issue with voters, coming in just behind the economy. Americans, to the chagrin of Rs, didn’t forget about the Supreme Court decision. They looked at ballots across the land and saw politicians and policies that threatened to undermine established precedents and freedoms, and they didn’t like who and what they saw. Look at Montana and Kentucky, two red states. Montana voters rejected proposed legislation that would have imposed criminal penalties on health care providers who do not act to preserve the life of infants born during an abortion. Kentucky voters rejected a proposal to amend the state’s constitution to say that it does not “secure or protect a right” to abortion or the funding of abortion. Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont approved legislation that enshrined abortion rights into the state constitutions. That’s 5/5 wins for abortion rights. That’s a winning percentage of 0% for Rs. The people spoke.
Wave? Midterms were barely a splash or ripple.
tymonday.com: @tymonday on Twitter & IG
crewunb.com: @crewunB on Twitter & @theunbearablescrew on IG